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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still